Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.020646 0.023447 0.026499 0.030072 0.034144 0.038643 0.043993
2025-03-09 0.016371 0.020235 0.024821 0.030674 0.037959 0.046746 0.058176
2025-03-16 0.013668 0.017886 0.023192 0.030371 0.039863 0.052020 0.068838
2025-03-23 0.012243 0.016790 0.022788 0.031305 0.043139 0.059071 0.082273
2025-03-30 0.010529 0.015026 0.021203 0.030345 0.043600 0.062225 0.090575
2025-04-06 0.009332 0.013800 0.020163 0.029934 0.044654 0.066152 0.100204
2025-04-13 0.008155 0.012451 0.018772 0.028809 0.044461 0.068130 0.107007
2025-04-20 0.007684 0.012094 0.018785 0.029752 0.047429 0.075066 0.122062
2025-04-27 0.007229 0.011703 0.018691 0.030488 0.050098 0.081732 0.137303
2025-05-04 0.006866 0.011416 0.018719 0.031399 0.053102 0.089166 0.154514
2025-05-11 0.006317 0.010764 0.018086 0.031134 0.054083 0.093284 0.166403
2025-05-18 0.005896 0.010288 0.017695 0.031227 0.055660 0.098519 0.180722
2025-05-25 0.005415 0.009673 0.017028 0.030805 0.056333 0.102316 0.193005
2025-06-01 0.005142 0.009402 0.016939 0.031410 0.058933 0.109842 0.213090
2025-06-08 0.004763 0.008901 0.016387 0.031101 0.059777 0.114162 0.227405
2025-06-15 0.004593 0.008773 0.016505 0.032057 0.063119 0.123515 0.252640
2025-06-22 0.004190 0.008163 0.015664 0.031074 0.062546 0.125155 0.262293
2025-06-29 0.003895 0.007736 0.015134 0.030653 0.063048 0.128957 0.276804
2025-07-06 0.003544 0.007169 0.014283 0.029499 0.061928 0.129321 0.283943
2025-07-13 0.003452 0.007117 0.014451 0.030466 0.065345 0.139463 0.313602
2025-07-20 0.003343 0.007019 0.014518 0.031220 0.068368 0.149032 0.342969
2025-07-27 0.003256 0.006962 0.014663 0.032154 0.071867 0.159957 0.376618
2025-08-03 0.003066 0.006666 0.014278 0.031882 0.072632 0.164834 0.396478